Candidates Hit Trail With New Energy
By DAN BALZ and JIM VANDEHEI - The Washington Post

News - October 10, 2004

WASHINGTON - President Bush and John F. Kerry head toward their final debate
on Wednesday night pursuing divergent strategies, with Bush seeking to discredit
his rival on terrorism and taxes while rallying his conservative base and Kerry
aiming at swing voters with stepped up attention to domestic issues.

Energized by Friday's presidential debate, Bush and Kerry hit the campaign trail
early Saturday. The president renewed his attacks on Kerry as he campaigned in
Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota, saying that the challenger's assertions that he has
held a consistent position on Iraq "just don't pass the credibility test." Kerry, in Ohio,
accused Bush of making a series of "wrong choices" as president, and tried to tap
into discontent about Bush's policies by promising a new direction for the country.

Bush boosted Republican morale with his performance at the town hall style debate,
but several instant polls judged Kerry a narrow winner. More than changing the
dynamic of a race that has tightened in the past 10 days, Friday's debate served to
set up Wednesday's encounter in Arizona as an opportunity to provide momentum
to one of the candidates going into the final weeks of the election.

The central tension of the campaign was on clear display at the St. Louis debate,
with Kerry determined to keep voters focused on what he called the failures of
Bush's Iraq and economic policies and Bush trying to force a close look at Kerry's
past positions on Iraq and a 20-year record in the Senate that the president has
characterized as mediocre.

Before the debates began, Bush held the edge both in national polls and in
potential electoral votes. Since then, national polls have tightened and the electoral
map has grown more competitive. Strategists on both sides believe it is likely that
whoever wins two of the three biggest prizes - Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania - will
win the election.

With Bush pinned down by troublesome news about his Iraq policies, Kerry has
tried to use the debates to boost his acceptability as a potential commander in chief
and win the election with a strong focus on issues such as health care, the economy
and stem cell research, where his advisers believe his positions are more popular
than Bush's.

But the president's advisers took hope from what they believed was a solid
performance by Bush in the domestic portion of Friday's debate - a view shared
privately by some Democratic strategists. As the next official debate turns to
domestic issues, the president is stepping up attacks on Kerry as a big government
liberal who will raise taxes and turn health care over to the federal government.

Bush plans to question Kerry's promise in Friday's debate never to raise taxes for
Americans making less than $200,000 by citing the Democrat's past votes for tax
increases, an aide said. Privately, Republicans say this was one of Kerry's more
effective lines in the debate and one that could soothe voter concerns about
Democrats raising taxes over the next four years. The president will continue to talk
more about what he says are flaws in Kerry's plans rather than focusing on Bush's
agenda on health care and taxes.

Still, the Bush campaign remains convinced that terrorism and national security will
decide this election. At a morning fundraiser for Republican gubernatorial candidate
Matt Blunt in Missouri, Bush ridiculed Kerry's position on Iraq, saying he has been
too inconsistent to trust. "With a straight face, he said, `I only had one position on
Iraq,'" Bush said. "He must think we've been on another planet."

Campaigning in Florida on Saturday, Vice President Dick Cheney noted that at one
point Kerry had said Hussein was a threat, then later chastised Bush for being
"preoccupied with Iraq, where there wasn't a threat." Cheney said, "That's
unbelievable ... mind-boggling."

After Bush's disappointing performance at the first debate in Coral Gables, Fla.,
Bush advisers signaled a belief that their candidate had rebounded. But Kerry
advisers see openings to raise doubts about where Bush would take the country,
particularly on domestic policy. They want to make the election a referendum on
change.

Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg said Kerry made clear gains, particularly
with independent and undecided voters, Friday night, according to his research.
"After the debate, fewer people thought that John Kerry was a flip-flopper or too
ready to raise taxes," he said.

Wednesday's debate at Arizona State University will focus exclusively on domestic
issues. Although Kerry appeared defensive at points during that part of Friday's
debate that covered domestic issues - particularly on abortion - Kerry advisers said
their own research during the debate showed positive reactions from a selected
group of voters on health care, prescription drugs, jobs and stem cell research.

On both abortion and stem cell research, the competing Bush and Kerry strategies
were clear, with Bush playing directly to social and religious conservatives and
Kerry reaching out to swing voters and women.

The Kerry campaign already has a television commercial airing in some
battleground states featuring actor Michael J. Fox, who has Parkinson's disease,
that calls for expanded research using embryonic stem cells. Greenberg told
reporters Saturday that Kerry had scored particularly well with college-educated
voters on that question.

Kerry advisers said they believe the senator's performances in the debates are
helping to erase questions about his fitness to serve as commander in chief, a vital
threshold for the challenger to cross. They also said that whenever external events
warrant, they will hammer Bush on his Iraq policies, as they did this past week after
a new report showed that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had neither weapons of
mass destruction nor the capacity to produce them at the time of the war.

But senior Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart told reporters the campaign hopes to spend
the final weeks talking mostly about domestic issues. "We're very much looking
forward to Wednesday night, where it's 90 minutes of domestic issues and will really
allow us to frame up what we will think will be the last ... three weeks of the
campaign," he said.

Despite some small differences, Kerry and Bush strategists largely agree with one
another on how the electoral map shapes up. Bush's once-strong lead in Ohio has
eroded, according to various polls and private assessments. Florida remains tight,
and the hurricane-racked state has been a pollster's nightmare for the past month.
Neither campaign takes either state for granted at this point. Pennsylvania has
begun to move toward Kerry, but Bush will fight for it until the end.

The upper Midwest remains the principal battleground. Kerry has the edge in
Michigan, but in Wisconsin, Bush has been leading. Kerry advisers say the state
has begun to move back in their direction but will be hard-fought until the election.
Iowa remains even more problematic for Kerry at this point.

Minnesota continues to lean toward Kerry, but Bush campaigned there Saturday.
Missouri appears to be Bush country right now. Kerry has stopped advertising there,
and his advisers show no signs of trying to compete seriously there unless the
overall race moves more dramatically.

The year began with four Rocky Mountain states as potential battlegrounds: New
Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado. Arizona looks good for Bush, according to
both campaigns. New Mexico, which Al Gore won by fewer than 400 votes in 2000,
remains highly competitive, as does Nevada, a Bush state four years ago. Kerry
advisers say they will continue to fight for Colorado, and Bush advisers express
some concern about the state.

Bush plans to campaign in the Northwest after the Arizona debate, with stops in
Oregon, where Kerry has a narrow lead. But Republicans fear Kerry may be in solid
shape in Washington.

Several smaller states continue to occupy the campaigns. New Hampshire, a Bush
state four years ago, is a battleground Kerry aides believe they can win. In Maine,
Kerry's advisers predict he will win the overall vote but worry that Bush could steal
one electoral vote by winning the state's northern congressional district. A senior
Bush campaign official said West Virginia, which voted for the president in 2000, is
moving strongly in Bush's direction, and Democrats agree that Kerry's positions on
cultural and social issues are tough to overcome there.

Republicans still hold out hope of a major upset in New Jersey, a Democratic state
where polls have shown as closer-than-expected. In a sign of concern inside the
Kerry camp, Edwards has visited the state twice in nine days. Cheney will speak
there Monday. But a top Kerry aide said the campaign doubts a candidate such as
Bush, who opposes abortion and gun control, can win there.

Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman said he believes only between 6 and 8
percent of voters remain undecided. "They don't vote, or they split between the two
candidates," he said. But Kerry officials still see undecided voters more likely to
side with the challenger. Bush officials say the dynamics of the race are set in
stone, and only an outside event such as a terrorist attack or major development in
Iraq will shake it up. "We are in a different world, because there are small number of
undecided voters and a large volume of information for all voters," Mehlman said.
"This is not a situation where a large number of voters are getting their first look."

SOURCE: The Washington Post / The Union Leader, NH
http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showa.html?article=45324

* * *

----------------------------------------------------------------------
To sign-off Parkinsn send a message to: mailto:[log in to unmask]
In the body of the message put: signoff parkinsn