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Mack, many thanks for your detective work.  The truth is a very elusive
commodity these days and I'm glad this one issue can be discussed on the
List.  Keep up the good work! Ray
----- Original Message -----
From: "mackenzie" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Sunday, March 26, 2006 12:50 AM
Subject: DAs & Gambling: The Non-Story, Part I


The first study claiming it had found an association
between dopamine agonists and gambling was published
in 2003 - the lead author was Dr. Mark Stacy. The
incidence found among those on Mirapex was 1.5% (8 out
of 529) - Stacy cites the incidence in the general
populatiion as 0.3-1.3% (he does not say where he got
that number.)

Here is what those numbers mean - nothing - and here
is why.

Given an incidence of gambling of 8 out of 529 mirapex
takers, and given an estimated incidence in the
general population of 0.3-1.3%, one would have to find
an incidence of 1.85 or fewer people in a group of 529
from the general population for there to be a
statistically significant difference between the two
incidences. (if my calculations are correct.)

If one then takes into account things like the fact
that there are many different estimates of the
incidence in the general pop and two that i have read
are even higher than that cited by Stacy; the study
data came from a retirement area in which there are a
lot of casinos; half of the eight Mirapex gamblers had
a history of depression; and the fact that every
single one of those people was also on sinemet, and
what you have is a big, fat zero of a study.

i emailed Dr. Stacy pointing out the obvious
weaknesses and asking him how he could in good
conscience have published/publicized such a study. He
responded that he was pretty much in agreement with me
regarding the thin-ness of the association and
pointed out that he had been quoted saying that he did
not think prescribing practices should change as a
result of this study.

And yet either Barrow or the Mayo Clinic sent it to
Reuters. i asked Dr. Stacy why. He said "I cannot
answer that."

Stay tuned to hear about the 2005 study.

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