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----- Original Message ----- From: "rayilynlee" <[log in to unmask]> To: <[log in to unmask]> Sent: Monday, June 16, 2008 2:17 PM Subject: Azilect for PD > Michal Yoshai 16 Jun 08 13:10 > In response to Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.'s (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: > TEVA) announcement this morning that its Azilect drug retards Parkinson's > disease, Psagot Investment House analyst Limor Gruber told Globes" that > Azilect sales could reach $150 million this year, and could reach $1 > billion or more in a few years. She reiterated her "Outperform" > recommendation for the company and target price of $55. Teva closed at > $42.50 on Nasdaq yesterday. > Gruber said, "Azilect sales already rose strongly in the fourth quarter. I > had predicted $40 million in sales for the fourth quarter. They will > probably grow, but it's hard to quantify." Global sales of Azilect totaled > $37.5 million in the first quarter of 2008, 50% more than in the > corresponding quarter of 2007. > Gruber added that the immediate reason for the increased sales in the fact > that US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for Azilect for the > treatment of Parkinson's disease is only a technical matter, since the > drug is already on the market for other indications, and its safety and > side effects are known. > Gruber noted, "Doctors also read the studies, and the trial results will > be an incentive for them to prescribe Azilect for patients. Presumably, > many doctors will now do so." > Gruber cautioned, however, that most of the $4 billion Parkinson's disease > market comprises generic drugs, which cost 20-30% of Azilect. This will > affect Azilect sales and its ability to win a share of the market from > other treatments for the disease. > Gruber said, "It's hard to know how fast Azilect will be adopted and how > many prescriptions will be written for it. It's hard to sign off and > declare whether sales will exceed $1 billion a year and when they will be > exhausted. Although Copaxone sales doubled in the past four years, they > rose much faster in the beginning. Its potential may be exhausted by 2011. > This scenario conforms to Teva's 20-20 strategy of $20 billion in sales > and a 20% profit margin in five years." > Gruber also notes that, assuming that Teva applies to the FDA to approve > Azilect for Parkinson's disease by the end of 2008, the procedure could > take until the end of 2009. "In 2009, approval of the results might lead > to an upward revision in forecasts for Teva for that year, which is > currently less than $3 per share," she said. > Gruber added that the timing of the Azilect announcement to last week's > announcement by Mylan Laboratories Inc. (NYSE: MYL) and India's Natco > Pharma Ltd. (BSE: 524816) to distribute a generic version of Copaxone, was > coincidental. "We've been waiting for the Azilect trial results, since > Teva announced in its financial report for 2007 that they would be ready > within about six months," she said. > Gruber added, "I think that the Azilect trial results should calm > investors worried by the Mylan and Natco's announcement about generic > Copaxone last week. This was a step in preparation for a situation in > which we see Teva launching alternatives to Copaxone so that if its patent > expires, someone will be able to produce a generic version of it." > The next big announcement Teva investors are waiting for is the Forte > trial results for Copaxone 40 mg tablets, due in mid to late August. > Gruber says, "If the results are positive, and I think that they probably > will be, Copaxone's patent will be extended by three more years. This will > give Teva more time to develop other drugs whose sales will replace > Copaxone sales when its patent expires. This is the essence of a company > that makes patent protected drugs." > Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - > www.globes-online.com - on June 16, 2008 > © Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2008 > > Rayilyn Brown > Director AZNPF > Arizona Chapter National Parkinson Foundation > [log in to unmask] > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > To sign-off Parkinsn send a message to: > mailto:[log in to unmask] > In the body of the message put: signoff parkinsn > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- To sign-off Parkinsn send a message to: mailto:[log in to unmask] In the body of the message put: signoff parkinsn