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Hi Moneesha,

Thank you for sharing your doctor's thoughts with us. It's good to know that
some in the medical community are doing some serious rethinking about what we
have traditionally been satisfied to call "idiopathic Parkinson's disease."

If the "several variants" hypothesis is correct, it would further explain why
the big successes are found in small open label Phase I trials, and almost
always fail in subsequent larger phase II and III trials. It's because the odds
of picking at random five or six people (as in the Spheramine open label phase
I trial) most or all of whom happen to have the same or a close disease variant
and therefore would respond similarly to a particular therapeutic application,
are long but not impossible. So occasionally we have what appear to be
"winners" in Phase I. But those "winners" will almost always lose when the
patient population increases to 40 or 70 people, because of the odds against
randomly picking a 70 patient cohort all of whom have the same or closely
matching disease variants increases enormously, 

For those who are still on a dopamine agonist, let me use a gambling analogy
(sorry, I couldn't resist -  I'll offer my 25 cents on that issue some other
time). Hitting three sevens at a slot machine is hard but it can be done.
Hitting three sevens 10 times in a row must be a near statistical
impossibility. And so researchers occasionally get lucky in the Phase I "pick
six" portion, but face almost certain failure in the larger trial phases. And
that is worse than a real waste of time and money, because it's so misleading
clinically.

Maybe PD research scientists can convince the FDA to accept "adaptive trial
design." I understand they are considering it. 

Greg




--- Moneesha Sharma <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

> Hi all,
> I sent Greg's very interesting mail to our doctor.  I am forwarding his
> response as I thought it might interest some of you.
> Moneesha
> 
> 
> The arguments are indeed valid. At the end of the day neurological disease
> remains a less explored and understood frontier of medicine. I entirely
> subscribe to the thought that PD is actually a bundle of diseases which
> manifests itself in similar ways. Our current treatments are not
> satisfactory for a large number of the people with the disease. The lack of
> a clear understanding of the brain's functioning remains an immense
> obstacle.
> 
> Actually Parkinsonian disease is perhaps the only neurological disease for
> which there is any treatment at all. Most other neurological conditions can
> be diagnosed but not treated.
> 
> Interesting perspective
> 
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