----- Original Message ----- 
From: "rayilynlee" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Monday, June 16, 2008 2:17 PM
Subject: Azilect for PD


> Michal Yoshai 16 Jun 08   13:10
> In response to Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.'s (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: 
> TEVA) announcement this morning that its Azilect drug retards Parkinson's 
> disease, Psagot Investment House analyst Limor Gruber told Globes" that 
> Azilect sales could reach $150 million this year, and could reach $1 
> billion or more in a few years. She reiterated her "Outperform" 
> recommendation for the company and target price of $55. Teva closed at 
> $42.50 on Nasdaq yesterday.
> Gruber said, "Azilect sales already rose strongly in the fourth quarter. I 
> had predicted $40 million in sales for the fourth quarter. They will 
> probably grow, but it's hard to quantify." Global sales of Azilect totaled 
> $37.5 million in the first quarter of 2008, 50% more than in the 
> corresponding quarter of 2007.
> Gruber added that the immediate reason for the increased sales in the fact 
> that US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for Azilect for the 
> treatment of Parkinson's disease is only a technical matter, since the 
> drug is already on the market for other indications, and its safety and 
> side effects are known.
> Gruber noted, "Doctors also read the studies, and the trial results will 
> be an incentive for them to prescribe Azilect for patients. Presumably, 
> many doctors will now do so."
> Gruber cautioned, however, that most of the $4 billion Parkinson's disease 
> market comprises generic drugs, which cost 20-30% of Azilect. This will 
> affect Azilect sales and its ability to win a share of the market from 
> other treatments for the disease.
> Gruber said, "It's hard to know how fast Azilect will be adopted and how 
> many prescriptions will be written for it. It's hard to sign off and 
> declare whether sales will exceed $1 billion a year and when they will be 
> exhausted. Although Copaxone sales doubled in the past four years, they 
> rose much faster in the beginning. Its potential may be exhausted by 2011. 
> This scenario conforms to Teva's 20-20 strategy of $20 billion in sales 
> and a 20% profit margin in five years."
> Gruber also notes that, assuming that Teva applies to the FDA to approve 
> Azilect for Parkinson's disease by the end of 2008, the procedure could 
> take until the end of 2009. "In 2009, approval of the results might lead 
> to an upward revision in forecasts for Teva for that year, which is 
> currently less than $3 per share," she said.
> Gruber added that the timing of the Azilect announcement to last week's 
> announcement by Mylan Laboratories Inc. (NYSE: MYL) and India's Natco 
> Pharma Ltd. (BSE: 524816) to distribute a generic version of Copaxone, was 
> coincidental. "We've been waiting for the Azilect trial results, since 
> Teva announced in its financial report for 2007 that they would be ready 
> within about six months," she said.
> Gruber added, "I think that the Azilect trial results should calm 
> investors worried by the Mylan and Natco's announcement about generic 
> Copaxone last week. This was a step in preparation for a situation in 
> which we see Teva launching alternatives to Copaxone so that if its patent 
> expires, someone will be able to produce a generic version of it."
> The next big announcement Teva investors are waiting for is the Forte 
> trial results for Copaxone 40 mg tablets, due in mid to late August. 
> Gruber says, "If the results are positive, and I think that they probably 
> will be, Copaxone's patent will be extended by three more years. This will 
> give Teva more time to develop other drugs whose sales will replace 
> Copaxone sales when its patent expires. This is the essence of a company 
> that makes patent protected drugs."
> Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - 
> www.globes-online.com - on June 16, 2008
> © Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2008
>
> Rayilyn Brown
> Director AZNPF
> Arizona Chapter National Parkinson Foundation
> [log in to unmask]
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